Initial thoughts
The Autumn Budget 2025 comes at a difficult moment. As Chancellor, Rachel Reeves has admitted the UK economy faces weak productivity, tighter finances and global headwinds. She has been clear that the easy days are gone and that tough choices lie ahead.

Her party is still bound by the manifesto commitment not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance for working people. The budget gap though is real and large. Until now, this promise has been under heavy pressure.

However, the recent announcement today (14 November 2025) to abandon any increase to basic and higher income tax rates has reshaped expectations. This U-turn has removed one of the most direct options for raising revenue and has pushed the government to look elsewhere.

In practical terms, I believe this Budget will shift further towards disciplined tweaks, threshold changes, selective relief adjustments and long-term stability. For individuals and small businesses the message is the same: plan for change, not for more of the same.

Anticipated changes

Here are the key tax and fiscal areas I expect to feature and where I’d advise clients to look now.

Income tax & threshold freezes

The government has now ruled out any rise to the basic or higher income tax rates. Instead, all focus has turned to thresholds. Freezing the personal allowance and higher-rate thresholds is still very likely. Cutting thresholds is now also being explored as a way to raise billions without increasing the actual rates. This creates “fiscal drag”, where people pay more tax over time even though the rates have not moved.

Savings, pensions and reliefs

Reliefs on pensions and ISAs remain under the spotlight. I expect changes to employer NI relief on pension contributions, tighter salary-sacrifice rules and possible adjustments to the cash-ISA allowance. Tax-efficient saving may become more selective and less generous.

For clients this means reviewing savings plans now rather than waiting for the Budget.

Property, wealth and higher value assets

Property and wealth taxes remain strong possibilities. This could include new charges on high-value homes, changes to stamp duty or council tax bands, or adjustments to inheritance or capital gains tax. Anyone with significant property or investment assets should consider early planning.

Exit tax

A possible exit tax may charge individuals on gains built up while they lived in the UK if they move abroad. This would treat certain assets as if they were sold on departure, with early suggestions pointing to a tax of around 20 percent on unrealised gains.

If you are considering relocating, now would be a good time to review your asset position as timing and structure could make a real difference.

Small business, indirect tax and thresholds

Smaller firms should keep a close eye on indirect tax changes and registration thresholds. A reduction in the VAT registration threshold or increased business-rates bills could have an immediate impact on costs and compliance. Planning ahead is key.

Impacts on individuals & small business

Individuals

• Freezing or cutting thresholds means income rises but may push you into higher tax bands even if rates stay the same.
  
• If pension or ISA reliefs change, long-term saving strategies may need to be updated.
  
• Property or wealth-tax changes may prompt earlier action for those with high-value assets.

Small businesses

• A change to the VAT threshold could pull more small businesses into registration, increasing admin and compliance costs.
  
• Business-rates or indirect tax moves could raise running costs.
  
• Growth plans may need adjusting as support becomes more targeted rather than broad.

Conclusion – are those no-tax-hike promises about to be broken?

The sharp U-turn on income tax rates suggests the government is holding the manifesto line on headline taxes, but that does not mean tax bills will stay the same. Stealth measures such as frozen or cut thresholds, tighter reliefs and indirect tax adjustments may still leave many worse off.

Plan on the basis that changes are likely. Even if headline rates stay the same, many people may still end up paying more through threshold shifts and reduced reliefs. The focus is moving away from chasing new reliefs and towards preparing for the pressures ahead.

Whether you’re an individual or a business owner, now is the time to review your position and prepare. This Budget is shaping up to be more disciplined than generous, and acting early will help reduce any disruption.

Further reading

Starmer and Reeves drop proposal to increase income tax rates in Budget